A new federal law cuts off student loans to low-earning degree programs. Official rulings land in 2027 — but the government's own data is already public, so we ran its test early on every program it can grade: ~49,900 of the 82,000+ on file.
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The rule, in one line: if a program's graduates (4 years out) earn less than a comparable adult without that degree — high-school-educated workers for undergrad programs, bachelor's grads for graduate programs — in 2 of 3 years, the program loses federal loan access. Undergrad bars are state-specific for schools serving mostly in-state students; graduate programs face the lowest of three bachelor's benchmarks — each case file shows which bar applies.
Nationwide · Simulated
clears the baron the linebelow the barhollow = online / out-of-state· size = students
What this is (and isn't): a simulation built strictly from the U.S. Department of Education's public PPD:2026 dataset (209,321 programs) and the earnings-test formula in the July 2026 final rule. It is not an official determination — the Department's first official calculations are expected in 2027 and may use newer cohorts. Where a figure is missing, the government suppressed it for privacy (fewer than 16 graduates) — we never estimate around it. Earnings = median for working graduates, 4 years after completion. Borrowing = average annual federal loans per borrower in that program (2024 award year). Our replication of the Department's published test flags matches 100% of 49,860 computable programs.
